As the 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches its quarter-final stage, the battle for the top spot is heating up. According to Opta's data, the favorites to reach the last four are France, Spain, Argentina, and England. However, all eight remaining teams have positive data in their favor, making it a tight competition. Let's take a closer look at some of the key statistics and analyze what they mean for each team.
France: The Unstoppable Force
One of the most impressive aspects of France's performance is their ability to glide past opponents. Opta measures ball carries of at least five meters, and France has nine players who have at least four productive carries, ending with either a shot or a chance created. This means that France is not just a possession-based team, but also a dangerous attacking force. What makes this particularly fascinating is that France's success is not just due to their individual talent, but also to their ability to work together as a cohesive unit. In my opinion, this is what makes them a true world-class team.
Morocco: The Sprinting Giants
Morocco has logged the most sprints of the eight teams remaining, with an average of 0.75 sprints per kilometer covered. This suggests that Morocco has been running at a high intensity throughout the tournament. While playing two of their matches in air-conditioned stadiums may have helped, Morocco should have the physicality to cope with France. What many people don't realize is that Morocco's success is not just due to their physicality, but also to their tactical discipline and ability to adapt to different opponents.
Spain: The Impervious Defense
Spain's average possession is within a couple of decimal places of what they averaged at Euro 2012. While this team is not as dour as their predecessors from 14 years ago, their ownership of the ball has enabled them to have a similarly impervious defense. To put Spain's expected goal total into context, Norway have allowed at least 1.49 xG in four of their five matches. This raises a deeper question: is Spain's success due to their defense, or is it due to their ability to control the tempo of the game?
Belgium: The High Turnover Experts
Belgium leads the stat for high turnovers leading to shots, with 15. This suggests that Belgium is a team that can create chances from a variety of situations. The edge Belgium enjoys is no team being close to them for the number of high turnovers that resulted in shots (15), with their four goals from them also the top mark. In my opinion, this is what makes Belgium a dangerous team, as they can create chances from almost any situation.
Norway: Quality Over Quantity
Norway has taken only four shots more than Cape Verde despite playing an extra match. However, the average quality of their chances, as measured by expected goals, has been higher than any other team. While five games is a tiny sample, Norway's non-penalty xG per shot (0.17) is higher than any team averaged in Europe's big five leagues last season. This suggests that Norway is a team that can create high-quality chances, even if they don't take many shots.
England: The Clinical Finishers
England produced a ruthless attacking performance against Mexico: six shots, five of which were on target, scoring three times. As they struck via two tap-ins and a penalty, their goals were deemed by Opta to be big chances, which are defined as when "a player should reasonably be expected to score". While far less clinical at converting them earlier in the tournament, England has had more of these golden opportunities than any other team. This suggests that England is a team that can create chances, but also has the clinical finishing ability to convert them.
Argentina: The Attacking Varieties
Argentina is the joint-top scorer with 14 goals. What sets them apart, however, is their attacking variety with no other team having scored as many times outside the remit of what Opta deem regular play. Argentina scored two counterattacking goals against Austria, a pair from free-kicks in their win over Jordan, and two via corners to see off Cape Verde. They can even afford for Lionel Messi to miss penalties. This suggests that Argentina is a team that can score goals in a variety of ways, and has the depth and talent to adapt to different opponents.
Switzerland: The Direct Speedsters
Switzerland does not appear to be a particularly quick attacking team to the eye, and by the standards of the 48 sides, they are not. However, Opta's direct-speed metric, which measures "average speed of ball movement towards opponent goal line during sequence", has them as the fastest of the quarter-finalists. This suggests that Switzerland is a team that can create chances quickly and efficiently, and may be able to pounce on any opportunities that arise.
In conclusion, the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are shaping up to be a thrilling competition. Each team has its own strengths and weaknesses, and the battle for the top spot is heating up. What makes this particularly fascinating is that each team has its own unique style of play, and the competition is wide open. From my perspective, the quarter-finals are a testament to the beauty and unpredictability of the game, and I can't wait to see what the rest of the tournament has in store.
